Original-Research:
Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
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Classification of NuWays AG to
Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name:
Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 5.1
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Title hopes gone for 25/26 season; Chg.
Topic: Within four days BVB got knocked out of the 2025/26 UCL campaign and
lost a crucial game in the Bundesliga, which should have put all
championship hopes aside. In detail:
Last Wednesday, BVB went to Bergamo for the second leg of the UCL playoff
round. Despite a 2-0 win in the first leg, BVB exited the campaign following
a last minute penalty, resulting in a 1-4 away loss. As a result, BVB is
missing out on at least EUR 11m UEFA premium payments as well as sales for at
least one additional home game. As the premium payments come at a de facto
100% margin, BVB cut its net income guidance from EUR -5 to 5m to EUR -22 to
-12m, which in our view also includes a slightly weaker operating
performance apart from the UCL exit, given that the round of 16 premium is
only EUR 11m. As the company has mostly been conservative with their outlook,
we position ourselves slightly more "optimistic" with our new estimate of EUR
-4.3m.
A couple of days after the Bergamo match, BVB hosted Bayern on Saturday for
the highlight match in the Bundesliga. Despite a significantly improved
on-pitch performance, the team had to suffer a 2-3 defeat, putting them 11
points behind Bayern. A margin that we view as impossible to overcome in the
remaining 10 matchdays, especially given Bayern's exceptional form this
season. Although the Bundesliga title does not result in any direct premium
payments, it increases prestige thus possibly attracting more attractive
sponsoring deals as well as international merchandise sales. Yet, we do not
factor this in our estimates, given Bayern's dominant position.
Despite the defeat on Saturday, BVB still has an 8 point cushion to 5th
placed Leipzig and a significantly better goal difference, which would be
the decisive factor in a possible tie on points. Mind you, a top-4 finish is
crucial for BVB as it allows for UCL participation, which is c. 5x as
lucrative as the UEFA Europa League. Notably, even 5th place might be
sufficient should the German teams be among the top-2 international
performers this season (currently 2nd with a minor margin on 3rd).
Besides the on-pitch performance, BVB already signed two new young players
for the upcoming season. While 18 year old Kauã Prates joins the club for an
alleged fee of EUR 12m from Brazilian side Cruzeiro, Justin Lerma, also 18,
will arrived from Ecuadorian club Independiente for c. EUR 4m. In our view,
both signings completely fit into BVB's Scout & Develop approach, which aims
to sign young, talented players for comparably low fees, develop them into
top-class players and sell them with strong returns after a couple of
seasons.
Despite the earlier than planned UCL exit, the team is playing a strong
season in the Bundesliga and has a high chance to qualify for the 2026/27
UCL campaign.
Reiterate BUY with a new PT of EUR 5.10 (old: EUR 5.20) based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=db2c2381d216c2f243a5a4256ab6a2be
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2285286 04.03.2026 CET/CEST
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Quelle: dpa-AFX