Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): Hold

Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG

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14.02.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG

ISIN: AT00000VIE62

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Hold

from: 14.02.2025

Target price: EUR 60.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Sustained passenger growth, but with less momentum into FY'25

Topic: Yesterday, FWAG released solid January traffic results that showed a

seasonal shift in passenger mix, which should revert back to its mean. In

detail:

FWAG started well into the year with solid January passenger growth of 4.8%

yoy to 2.44m pax (vs. eNuW: 2.39m). Here, VIE grew by 3.4% yoy to 1.89m pax

(78% of passengers), whereas MLA and KSC continued with strong momentum of

9% yoy and 22% yoy growth (22% of passengers).

Passenger mix shift towards local to revert back. Although VIE passengers

grew by 3.4% yoy, the mix shifted notably towards local passengers (82% of

pax vs. 80% in Jan'24; + 6% yoy) and the share of important transfer

passengers has declined to 18% of pax (vs. 20% in Jan'24; -7.2% yoy). The

combination of strong growth in long-haul destinations such as Far East

(+38% yoy), North America (+11% yoy) and Africa (+22% yoy), which usually

have a higher transfer share, while the overall seat-load- factor is

seasonally down (passengers per movement: -1% yoy) at the same time, might

imply a seasonally weak seat-load-factor in short-haul destinations. We

expect this effect to revert back during the course of the year (eNuW:

transfer share of 21% in FY'25e), as utilization rates are expected to rise

again during summer. Mind you, transfer passengers are very important for

hubs like VIE, as they usually spend more on retail and restaurants than

local passengers and contribute twice in terms of passenger fees.

Passenger momentum to decrease: Going forward, we expect the strong momentum

seen until 2024, to slow down in FY'25e, as last years passenger records

created a tough comparable base. All in all, we expect passenger growth

rates to decrease to low single digits for the next months, with an overall

growth of 2.4% yoy in FY'25e. - see p. 2 for details

Moreover, FWAG will report FY'24 figures on 3rd March 2025, which we expect

to come in a strong with EUR 1,038m in sales (+11% yoy) and an EBITDA of EUR

429m (+9% yoy). Looking into this year, the company released a FY'25e

guidance with sales of c. EUR 1.08bn (eNuW: EUR 1.08bn, +4% yoy) and an EBITDA

of c. EUR 440m (eNuW: EUR 439m, +2% yoy), under the assumption of c. 42m

passengers on group level (eNuW: 42.4m).

Against this backdrop, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an

unchagend PT of EUR 60.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31767.pdf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: [email protected]

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2086269 14.02.2025 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-AFX