Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG

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07.05.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

Company Name: MHP Hotel AG

ISIN: DE000A3E5C24

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 07.05.2025

Target price: EUR 3.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Strong beat on the bottom-line; chg.

Topic: Yesterday, MHP released an ad-hoc stating that FY24 EBITDA is

expected significantly stronger than previously anticipated. Moreover,

management hinted for continuous portfolio expansion. In detail:

For FY24, management now expects an EBITDA in the range of EUR 10.0-10.5m.

This represents a 14% beat at mid-point compared to the old guidance of

around EUR 9m, which the company put out in December. Given the implied FY24e

sales (derived from quarterly hotel performance updates) of EUR 160m, this

implies a margin of 6.3%, marking a steep 5.5pp yoy improvement.

In our view, this is a strong confirmation of the operating strength of

MHP's business model, which is seen to thrive further on the back of strong

ADR's and solid occupancy rates. It also shows, that the company's clear

focus on the premium- and luxury-segment is paying off, as we observe a

continuous outperformance compared to midscale and economy hotels.

Against this backdrop, management also confirmed the FY25 guidance of EUR 180m

sales (eNuW: EUR 185m) and EUR 15m EBITDA (eNuW: EUR 15.0m/ EUR 10m adj. EBITDA

excl. key-money payments), implying a 13% yoy top-line increase and an 8.3%

EBITDA margin.

Strategic expansion. In a corporate news following the ad-hoc, management

stated that it is currently reviewing the increase of existing financing

capabilities for further growth investments given the appealing

opportunities provided by the ongoing consolidation of the European and

especially DACH hotel market. In our view, expanding the portfolio during

the current window of opportunity is absolutely sensible. Especially the

numerous prominent insolvencies that we observed recently should put market

leading players like MHP in a strong position to take over and reposition

hotels in central locations of the company's key markets. Mind you, that we

do not include any portfolio expansion in our model. Hence, every hotel

added is providing upside to our estimates.

On this basis as well as given the currently undemanding valuation (5.3x

EV/adj. EBITDA FY25e), we reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 3.00 based

on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32488.pdf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: [email protected]

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2131584 07.05.2025 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-AFX