Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG

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29.09.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE

Company Name: 123fahrschule SE

ISIN: DE000A2P4HL9

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 29.09.2025

Target price: EUR 7.40

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

123f issues PW amid pending reform; chg.

Friday after market close, 123f put out an ad-hoc, stating that the company

will likely not achieve its initial FY25 guidance of EUR 26-28m sales and EUR

1.5-2.5m EBITDA. From our perspective, this came as a surprise, following

the strong H1 results published only three weeks ago, which also came with a

confirmation of the FY outlook. In detail:

Management now expects sales to come to arrive in the range of EUR 25-26m,

caused mainly by a weaker than anticipated performance in the professional

driver and driving instructor training segments. Moreover, the still-pending

reform of the driver training regulations (i.e. simulators & online theory

lessons) is apparently delaying investment decisions thus dampening demand

especially in the simulator segment. Although simulators provided an already

strong revenue contribution in H1 (EUR 0.7m), it still could not realize its

full potential. Moreover, a major truck order expected for H2 did not

materialize, while the communicated large order from Q1 (EUR 1m) shrank to EUR

0.35m due to "political uncertainties in the US.

The EBITDA guidance was also reduced, as management is now targeting EUR

0.4-1.0m. This was due to higher operating costs in H2 following strategic

personnel and investment decisions, one-off burdens from relocations and new

site openings, and the weaker top-line development. Given the EUR 1.0m EBITDA

in H1, the new outlook implies a negative EUR 0.3m EBITDA for H2 at mid-point.

We hence position ourselves at the very upper end of the new guidance.

On a positive note, management emphasizes that the core driver, the private

customer training segment (79% sales contribution in H1), is continuing to

perform well with double-digit growth, higher sales per instructor, and

strong profitability, providing resilience despite the weaker segments.

Looking ahead, a catch-up in the simulator business from FY26 on appears to

be in the cards once regulatory reforms are enacted and demand materializes,

while investments in the ERP platform, AI, and process automation are

expected to improve efficiency and scalability. Overall, the strategic

agenda remains unchanged, underpinning confidence in sustained growth and

margin expansion, in our view.

Overall, we continue to regard the case as fully intact, given the pending

reform should only delay revenues. More importantly, 123f remains in pole

position for the upcoming change in regulation given its unique set-up based

on its proprietary digital platform as well as market leadership in most of

Germany's larger municipalities. Hence, the company remains well on track

for sustained growth and margin expansion based on increasing scale effects.

We thus confirm our BUY rating with a reduced PT of EUR 7.40 (old: EUR 7.90)

based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=c94a032759eb6259da17337da9f832c5

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: [email protected]

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2204770 29.09.2025 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-AFX