Original-Research: Ernst Russ AG (von Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft...

Original-Research: Ernst Russ AG - from Quirin Privatbank

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Kapitalmarktgeschäft

18.11.2025 / 08:35 CET/CEST

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Classification of Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to Ernst Russ AG

Company Name: Ernst Russ AG

ISIN: DE000A161077

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 18.11.2025

Target price: 11.00

Last rating change:

Analyst: Klaus Soer

Improved portfolio Structure & Solid Q3

Ernst Russ refined its FY25 guidance and delivered solid 9M 25 (Q3 25)

results in line with our expectations. Revenue of Q3/25 accounted for EUR

39.4m (-5% yoy.). Q3/25 EBIT came in with EUR 22.1m. EBIT margin of 56.1% is

very favorable and largely backed by ongoing high charter rates despite

global economic uncertainties. Average daily charter Rate holds up at USD

17,802 (YTD) and average remaining duration of charter contracts have

increased to 24.4 month (incl. two vessels on order). In order to increase

transparency to capital markets and shareholders, ER has performed on the

buyout of non-strategic minorities across a JV with six containerships (new

ER stake 99%), plus two vessels (new ER stake above 50%). This strategic

investment lowers the fleet's average minority share from approx. 40% (FY24)

to 25% for FY25e. We expect the investment size for the minority buyouts to

be around EUR 34m, which sums up to an expected total capex of around EUR

50m FY25e. Our expectation on full FY25e remains nearly unchanged on the

operational level of the ER group. Sales should achieve around EUR 157m (-9%

yoy.) due to the reduced fleet and slightly lower charter rates. Our new

FY25e EBIT expectation is EUR 84.8m (+19.4% yoy.), which includes capital

gains of around EUR 42.3m due to the sale of two older vessel in H1/25 and

the recent sale of "EF Elena" (est. capital gain of approx. EUR 10m). FY25

EBIT is burdened by around EUR 10m by non-cash neutral result due to the

weaker USD vs. EUR. Based on our updated DCF model we derive at a fair

market value for the ER stock of EUR 11.31 per share (prev. EUR 10.00). The

increase relates mainly to the expected slightly higher charter rates and

the strengthening of the vessel portfolio by the recent acquisitions. We add

a new asset-based valuation of the ER group vessel portfolio including cash

resources. Based on external ship valuation we derive at a portfolio value

of EUR 13.21 per share. We reiterate our BUY Rec with TP of EUR 11.00

(prior: EUR 10.00).

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=c523e26d208fd94bc00cf94e77da1a55

For additional information visit our website:

https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/

Contact for questions:

Quirin Privatbank AG

Institutionelles Research

Schillerstraße 20

60313 Frankfurt am Main

[email protected]

https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/

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2231436 18.11.2025 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-AFX