Original-Research: Ernst Russ AG (von Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft): Buy

Classification of Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to Ernst Russ AG

Company Name:	Ernst Russ AG
ISIN:	DE000A161077
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	Buy
from:	18.11.2025
Target price:	11.00
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Klaus Soer

Improved portfolio Structure & Solid Q3

Ernst Russ refined its FY25 guidance and delivered solid 9M 25 (Q3 25) results in line with our expectations. Revenue of Q3/25 accounted for EUR 39.4m (-5% yoy.). Q3/25 EBIT came in with EUR 22.1m. EBIT margin of 56.1% is very favorable and largely backed by ongoing high charter rates despite global economic uncertainties. Average daily charter Rate holds up at USD 17,802 (YTD) and average remaining duration of charter contracts have increased to 24.4 month (incl. two vessels on order). In order to increase transparency to capital markets and shareholders, ER has performed on the buyout of non-strategic minorities across a JV with six containerships (new ER stake 99%), plus two vessels (new ER stake above 50%). This strategic investment lowers the fleet’s average minority share from approx. 40% (FY24) to 25% for FY25e. We expect the investment size for the minority buyouts to be around EUR 34m, which sums up to an expected total capex of around EUR 50m FY25e. Our expectation on full FY25e remains nearly unchanged on the operational level of the ER group. Sales should achieve around EUR 157m (-9% yoy.) due to the reduced fleet and slightly lower charter rates. Our new FY25e EBIT expectation is EUR 84.8m (+19.4% yoy.), which includes capital gains of around EUR 42.3m due to the sale of two older vessel in H1/25 and the recent sale of “EF Elena” (est. capital gain of approx. EUR 10m). FY25 EBIT is burdened by around EUR 10m by non-cash neutral result due to the weaker USD vs. EUR. Based on our updated DCF model we derive at a fair market value for the ER stock of EUR 11.31 per share (prev. EUR 10.00). The increase relates mainly to the expected slightly higher charter rates and the strengthening of the vessel portfolio by the recent acquisitions. We add a new asset-based valuation of the ER group vessel portfolio including cash resources. Based on external ship valuation we derive at a portfolio value of EUR 13.21 per share. We reiterate our BUY Rec with TP of EUR 11.00 (prior: EUR 10.00).
 

You can download the research here: ErnstRuss20251118
For additional information visit our website: https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/

Contact for questions:
Quirin Privatbank AG
Institutionelles Research
Schillerstraße 20
60313 Frankfurt am Main
[email protected]
https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/